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SHERLOCK'S SAN DIEGO STATS

No. 0606a98

 

SERIES 8 REGIONAL GROWTH FORECAST
1990 - 2015


SAN DIEGO REGION


The 2000 and 2005 residential forecasts are consistent with adopted land use policies. The 2015 forecast may exceed the capacity specified in or implied by current general and community plans.

								---------1990-2015--------
								Absolute   Pct.  Avg Annual
			     1990      2000      2005      2015	 Change   Change  % Change
TOTAL POPULATION	2,498,016 3,004,434 3,267,254 3,763,253	1,265,237  50.6%   1.7%
  Household		2,389,651 2,897,277 3,154,696 3,639,835	1,250,184  52.3%   1.7%
  Group Quarters	  108,365   107,157   112,558   123,418	   15,053  13.9%   0.5%


TOTAL HOUSING UNITS	  946,240 1,054,734 1,158,559 1,371,971	  425,731  45.0%   1.5%
  Single Family		  554,821   610,191   668,075   785,103	  230,282  41.5%   1.4%
  Multiple Family	  335,480   388,245   434,834   534,899	  199,419  59.4%   1.9%
  Mobile Homes		   45,992    46,351    45,703    42,022	   -3,970  -8.6%  -0.4%
  Other Units		    9,947     9,947     9,947     9,947	        0   0.0%   0.0%


OCCUPIED HOUSING UNITS	  887,403 1,013,127 1,115,944 1,324,011	  436,608  49.2%   1.6%
VACANCY RATE		     6.2%      3.9%      3.7%      3.5%	    -2.7% -43.8%  -2.3%
PERSONS PER HOUSEHOLD	     2.69      2.86      2.83      2.75	     0.06   2.1%   0.1%


TOTAL EMPLOYMENT	1,198,265 1,251,962 1,380,067 1,561,394	  363,129  30.3%   1.1%
 Civilian		1,087,254 1,140,951 1,269,056 1,450,383	  363,129  33.4%   1.2%
  Agric. & Mining	   18,903    17,829    17,746    17,468	   -1,435  -7.6%  -0.3%
  Construction		   65,335    61,140    76,154    87,448	   22,113  33.8%   1.2%
  Manufacturing		  141,338   143,443   154,795   157,948	   16,610  11.8%   0.4%
  Trans., Comm., Util.     39,398    41,956    46,278    53,973	   14,575  37.0%   1.3%
  Wholesale Trade	   48,237    49,567    55,397    63,025	   14,788  30.7%   1.1%
  Retail Trade		  208,515   217,402   244,034   295,039	   86,524  41.5%   1.4%
  Fin.,Ins.,Real Estate	   75,901    80,774    91,661   109,796	   33,895  44.7%   1.5%
  Services		  312,623   346,386   383,327   448,979	  136,356  43.6%   1.5%
  Government		  177,004   182,454   199,664   216,707	   39,703  22.4%   0.8%
 Uniformed Military	  111,011   111,011   111,011   111,011	        0   0.0%   0.0%


TOTAL ACRES		2,726,975 2,726,975 2,726,975 2,726,975	        0   0.0%   0.0%
 Developed Acres	  927,560   959,547   998,151 1,121,030	  193,470  20.9%   0.8%
  Low Density Residential  55,070    66,497    80,368   159,373	  104,303 189.4%   4.3%
  Single Family		  143,713   156,938   174,309   205,701	   61,988  43.1%   1.4%
  Multiple Family	   24,484    27,284    29,541    33,813	    9,328  38.1%   1.3%
  Mobile Homes		    5,481     5,481     5,370     4,953	     -529  -9.6%  -0.4%
  Other Residential	    1,096     1,096     1,096     1,096	        0   0.0%   0.0%
  Indust./TCU/Wholesale	   35,664    37,140    39,568    42,604	    6,941  19.5%   0.7%
  Retail		   25,273    26,359    27,428    29,273	    3,999  15.8%   0.6%
  Office		    2,613     2,765     3,027     3,395	      782  29.9%   1.1%
  Schools		   10,370    10,751    11,095    11,441	    1,072  10.3%   0.4%
  Agric. & Extractive	    3,980     3,981     3,981     3,981	        1   0.0%   0.0%
  Parks			  607,559   607,559   607,559   607,559	        0   0.0%   0.0%
  Roads & Freeways	   12,257    13,694    14,810    17,841	    5,584  45.6%   1.5%


 Vacant Developable Acres 688,087   656,100   617,496   494,617	 -193,470 -28.1%  -1.3%
  Low Density Residential 592,044   560,813   546,943   467,938	 -124,106 -21.0%  -0.9%
  Single Family		   51,070    56,619    38,827     6,125	  -44,946 -88.0%  -8.1%
  Multiple Family	    7,191     5,335     3,534       749	   -6,443 -89.6%  -8.7%
  Indust./TCU/Wholesale	   16,935    15,468    13,053    10,059	   -6,876 -40.6%  -2.1%
  Retail		    7,243     6,188     5,164     3,499	   -3,743 -51.7%  -2.9%
  Office		    1,280     1,144       902       553	     -728 -56.8%  -3.3%
  Schools		    2,939     2,587     2,243     1,897	   -1,042 -35.5%  -1.7%
  Agric. & Extractive	    3,791     3,789     3,789     3,789	       -1  -0.0%  -0.0%
  Roads & Freeways	    5,592     4,155     3,040         8	   -5,584 -99.9% -23.0%


 Constrained Acres	1,111,328 1,111,328 1,111,328 1,111,328	        0   0.0%   0.0%


GROSS EMPL. DENSITY	     14.0      14.1      14.9      16.0	      2.0  14.6%   0.5%
GROSS RESID. DENSITY	      4.1       4.1       4.0       3.4	     -0.7 -17.7%  -0.8%

OBTAINED FROM AND WITH THANKS TO THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY ASSOCIATION OF GOVERNMENTS         (SANDAG)

SANDAG/SOURCEPOINT (619) 595-5300

Source: Series 8 Regional Growth Forecast (Interim Forecast, 5/95)


E-mail: dorf@dorfmanrealestate.com    dorfman real estate & business brokerage   760-942-4230

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